Abaphandi beemarike bavame ukusebenzisa iindlela ezinomsebenzi wethu. Kubalulekile ukuqonda amandla kunye nokunciphisa nayiphi na indlela yophando. Oku kuyinyani ngokukodwa malunga nobuchule bokuphanda ubuninzi ngezizathu ezibini: (1) Izazinzululwazi kunye neenkcubeko zithandwa kakhulu ngamacandelo ophando olunzulu kwaye zithatha ukungakhange zijonge ngokucokisekileyo kwi-design and mechanics yale nkqubo, kwaye (2) Kulula ukuyila umgudu wophando oluninzi.
Ukugxila kobuxoki kwiNombolo
"Ukupholisa" ukuba ukwazi ukuthetha ukuba uphando oluthile r . "Iimfuno", ixesha elibonisa ukuba ngabahlalutyi abaninzi baziwa, baye bafaka amaninzi amaninzi kwi-pedestal . Ndiyakholelwa ukuba oku ngakumbi kuba imathematika eyinkimbinkimbi kunye neenkcukacha zihlonishwa ngenxa yokuba abaninzi bethu abayiqondi into eninzi. Ukuba kukho into ebonakalayo inenzuzo yoluntu kwaye ngoko nkulu kunzima kwaye iyimfihlakalo ithetha ukuthatha inkcubeko "ukukhanya." Iimarike zixakeke ngekhompyutheni kunye nokufanisa. Yayihlonipha ibhokisi elimnyama leemveliso ezazityhutyha xa iimodeli zahluleka ukuqikelela ukungazenzeki.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, tshela ngokukhawuleza ukuba unomgangatho Umphandi kunye nabantu banokukunika umboniso ophazamisayo. Uninzi lwabantu luyazi ukuba iimfuno zibandakanyeka ekukhethweni kwezinto kunye nokuhlolwa kwepotfolio.
Kodwa yintoni umphandi ofanelekileyo? Ngaphandle kokuba nguMargaret Mead, oko kukuthi, yintoni indima eshiywe kumphandi ofanelekileyo? Okanye ukucinga okuqhelekileyo kuya kuhamba.
Inqanaba elidala kakhulu lekhompyutheni yesayensi. Iikhompyutheni zekhompyutheni zilungile nje njengomxholo abakhelwe kuwo. Umcimbi we ukuxiliswa akukaze kube kude kakhulu.
UGeorge Soros usetyenzise igama elithi reflexivity ngokubambisana nezoqoqosho ngokubanzi, kunye neemarike zemali ngokukodwa. Umgaqo wokungaqiniseki kaHeisenberg, oontanga lokuziphendulela kwintsimi ye-physics, nayo ifanelekile kulo mongo. U-Heisenberg - ngokucacileyo ongayenzi umgaqo-mthetho-sichaza ukuba asikwazi ukulinganisa iimpawu ezimbini zento ngokukhawuleza, kuba, ekulinganiseni kwethu, sinokuchaphazela iimpawu okanye into leyo kwaye ke sizisa utshintsho okanye ukuphazamiseka kwento yokuqala .
Cinga ngamazwi kaGeorge Soros kwiSebe le-Economics ye-MIT ngo-1994.
" Inkcazo evumelekileyo ngokuqhelekileyo kukuba iimarike zezemali zithatha ukulingana, kwaye ngokubanzi, ukuphuhlisa ikusasa ngokuchanekileyo. Xa kunokwenzeka, iimarike zingena kwiimeko zesifo esiyingozi kwaye ziphathe ngendlela eyahlukileyo kwizinto eziza kuqwalaselwa ngokuqhelekileyo ngolu hlobo lweemali. zeemarike ezifanelekileyo.
Olunye ukhangelelwano oluthile ngokubhekiselele kwizinto ezifanayo zichazwe kwincwadi ethi Black Swan nguNassim Nicholas Taleb. Intshontsho ebomnyama ayifumanekanga kwindalo - abantu abambalwa baye babona intombazana emnyama. Ngokutsho kweTaleb, i-swan ebomvu iyisiganeko esihle okanye esibi esicatshangelwa ukuba singenakwenzeka. Kodwa xa kwenzeka i-swan eyimnyama, kubangele imiphumo emibi. Abanye abantu bakholelwa ukuba iziganeko ezimnyama zaseburhulumenteni zichaze kakhulu malunga nehlabathi. Kodwa abaninzi abantu-ingakumbi iingcali-abayimfama kwi-swans abamnyama.
Indlela yokungazithembi ibalulekile kwi-science-based science. Kukho ezinye izinto oza kuziqwalasela xa uhlola iingcamango ezinxulumene nokufelwa kweenombolo eziphazamisa abantu kwiingcipheko zokwamkela uphando olulinganisiweyo kunye nokuxhomekeka ngokubanzi kwi-distribution evamile.
Kuyimpazamo ukukholelwa ukuba uphando oluninzi olusekelwe kwiinkalo ezingenasiphelo luyinyaniso okanye isayensi kunokuba uphando olusisiseko-uphando. Iphuzu elibalulekileyo ekuqhathaniseni phakathi kophando olulinganisiweyo nophando olulinganisiweyo kukuba ukuthatha inxaxheba komphenyi -ngenye yezona zichaso ngokubhekiselele kuphando olulinganiselayo - lwenzeka kwiindlela ezininzi . Enyanisweni, kwenzeka kwangaphambili kwindlela yokulandelelana ngokulandelelana komtshini wophando kwiphando elongezelelweyo kunokuba lucinge ngophando olululo .
Umphandi uvelisa ingcamango kwiphando elongezelelweyo eya ku "vavanywa" yiinkqubo zemibare. Isizukulwana seengcamango sinokuba ngumsebenzi ophantsi. Kwaye ukugxininisa kakhulu kwindlela yokuhlola i-hypothesis ingakhohlisa. Zininzi iindlela zophando olulungileyo zivumela iipateni ezivela kwi-data ukuba zibhekise kwiingqungquthela ezinokuthi zibandakanye ulwalamano (oku kulingana nokuhlolwa kweengcinga kwi-quetative research). Uphando olulungeleyo luyakwazi ukuvulela "i-swans emnyama" eyenzekayo, apho kungekho ncamango ingqineka okanye ingavunyelwa.